SPATIAL MODELING AND EPIDEMIOLOGICAL ASSESSMENT OF HEPATITIS C VIRUS (HCV) PREVALENCE AND SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC RISK FACTORS IN UPPER BUNER, KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA, PAKISTAN

Abstract

This study investigates the spatial patterns and demographic determinants of Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) infections in the Upper Buner region, specifically focusing on the Gadezai and Dagger tehsils. Utilizing registration data from the District Headquarter Dagger, Buner, alongside field questionnaires and Global Positioning System (GPS) tracking, a total of 844 registered patients across 29 villages were analyzed. The epidemiological assessment revealed a higher prevalence among males (51.54%) compared to females (48.45%) , with a predominant concentration of cases among married individuals (86.6%). The age group of 31–45 years was identified as the most severely affected cohort across both tehsils. Spatial analysis demonstrated that HCV distributions are highly clustered within larger villages, forming notable epidemiological hot spots in Dokaddah, Torwarsak, Geraray, Anghapur, Bazargai, Kalakheela, and Bampoha. Major risk factors fueling the local epidemic include low regional education and awareness , intra-familial sharing of personal items (needles, miswak, dandasa) , reliance on unhygienic barber shops , disease importation by overseas workers , contaminated stream-fed drinking water networks , and substandard practices among informal general practitioners and dental technicians. Prompt public health campaigns, mandatory pre-marital testing, structural water infrastructure repairs, and targeted spatial interventions are urgently required to mitigate further transmission.